Elections & Energy Policy Brief

ELECTIONS & ENERGY | La Jolla Conference 30 th Anniversary Policy Brief

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COLOMBIA

Colombia’s election will not take place until 2022, but its outcome may as well be decided now during the protests shaking the country. President Duque is experiencing abysmal approval ratings and that rejection is extending to potential candidates identified as “Uribistas” – those close or endorsed by former President Alvaro Uribe, who tends to represent the extreme right in Colombia. On the other hand, support for the candidate of the left—Gustavo Petro—has increased since protests began. That said, a year is an exceptionally long time in politics. President Duque made what most see as “tone-deaf” political mistakes, such as to propose a major tax reform in the middle of the worst economic recession in recent history and appearing aloof and insensitive to what many human right organizations accused as excessive use of force by the police against protesters. Yet, the degradation of the social order in the country in recent weeks, increasing random acts of violence, and existence of illegal blockades has led in some quarters to protest fatigue among the population.

Preferences can rapidly shift against the protesters and those who try to benefit politically. As the situation drags on, it will be important to consider how blame is placed as, in many ways, the factor of who in the end is held responsible for the massive social and economic chaos and costs of a month of protests, looting and violence, could in large determine the elections of 2022.

Independently of who is elected, the next Colombian president, like those of Ecuador and Peru, will have to balance the expectations of an extremely frustrated society with that of what the country needs to do to regain financial health. In the case of Colombia, the situation is even more precarious because of the damage caused to the country’s infrastructure, the massive closures of large corporations, and the government’s inability to legislate.

The government’s ill-timed tax reform and an equally controversial health care reform were withdrawn. To placate the protests, a series of hastily policies have been proposed. Yet, at the time of writing, there appears to be no agreement in sight between the government and the protesters’ representatives. It is important to note that who is representing the protesters is also under question,

ANNIVERSARY POLICY BRIEF | INSITUTE OF THE AMERICAS