Elections & Energy Policy Brief

ELECTIONS & ENERGY | La Jolla Conference 30 th Anniversary Policy Brief

11

There was little doubt about the outcome of the June 6 elections, as it was widely expected for Lopez Obrador’s party (MORENA) to win; the question was as to the margin and level of control and if the victory would allow Mr. Obrador to secure a supermajority and thus enable him to amend the Constitution.

As it turns out, Mexicans opted for a status-quo: maintaining Lopez Obrador and his party as the main political force in the country, although weakened in the Chamber of Deputies and very far from a supermajority.

What’s next for Mexico? There are two distinct outcomes based exclusively on how soon and how strong there may be an economic recovery.

Assuming a prompt economic recovery, in part supported by a solid U.S. economic growth post-Covid-19, we can speculate a closed- door political negotiation seeking new coalitions in preparation for a post-Lopez Obrador era. His ability to remain as the puppet master would depend on how the economic recovery transfers into political support. As such, a status-quo is likely to prevail.

If, on the other hand, the economy fails to recover quickly, one could speculate Lopez Obrador reconsidering his tactics, perhaps becoming humbler and pragmatic, particularly vis-a-vis the energy sector. In this scenario, it might even become possible for him to return to the market-oriented energy reform as he tries to survive the political backlash and salvage his political legacy.

But, President Lopez Obrador’s rhetoric since the June 6 election and his insistence that he will continue to seek a counter reform in the energy sector regardless of the make-up of the Congress dims hope for pragmatism during his sexenio .

ANNIVERSARY POLICY BRIEF | INSITUTE OF THE AMERICAS

Made with FlippingBook Digital Publishing Software