Elections & Energy Policy Brief

ELECTIONS & ENERGY | La Jolla Conference 30 th Anniversary Policy Brief

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BRAZIL

In Brazil, after the corruption scandals and economic stagnation that afflicted the long mandate of the leftist Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) Brazilians opted for a relative unknown. Also elected as a disrupter, Jair Bolsonaro benefitted from the general malaise that took over Brazil, the so-called PT fatigue, by the country’s failure to meet the unrealistic expectations of economic success set in the early 2000’s. Modeled as “the Trump of South America,” Bolsonaro’s management of the pandemic has been a disaster resulting in increasing protests, rapidly declining support and continued spiraling of the nation’s healthcare system and spiking deaths, not to mention Covid variants and impacts on its many neighbors in South America. Despite the calamitous state of the pandemic and his disregard to institutional politics, Bolsonaro remains defiant on his run for reelection. He maintains a loyal base of voters and will hope to make the most of probable economic growth in 2022 to boost his campaign. While support for Bolsonaro dwindles, the political rehabilitation of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues, making him a likely candidate for the 2022 elections with real possibilities of success. The wear and tear of Bolsonaro’s dysfunctional government and Lula’s political expertise and charisma make the former president the leading opposition force to deter Bolsonaro’s political project. Therefore, Brazil is set to repeat the electoral polarization that has characterized Brazilian politics since 1989. However, there is a slim chance for a change in the scenario. Both main candidates carry high rejection rates, which could create space for a centrist third way to grow. Bolsonaro’s far-right agenda alienates half the country, while Lula embodies PT’s tarnished image, which remains deeply unpopular amongst large portions of citizens. The possibility of viable third way campaign breaking the polarization is small, but the dynamism of Brazilian politics is intense.

ANNIVERSARY POLICY BRIEF | INSITUTE OF THE AMERICAS