Elections & Energy Policy Brief

ELECTIONS & ENERGY | La Jolla Conference 30 th Anniversary Policy Brief

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ECUADOR

The collapsing popularity of former president Lenin Moreno, due in part to the poor management of the pandemic in Ecuador, in many ways pointed to that country embracing a return to “Correismo,” led this time by candidate Andres Arauz. However, in a crowded field, the first round resulted in a razor-thin finish between the Pachacutik candidate Yaku Perez and the conservative candidate Guillermo Lasso, a former banker who eked out a slot in the run-off. In the second round, there was a realignment of preferences. Indigenous voters stayed home or otherwise supported Lasso, instead of the leftist Arauz. Nonetheless, the “Correista” party UNES managed to secure most posts in the National Assembly, forcing an alliance between the indigenous Pachakutik party and Lasso’s CREO to secure a majority in the National Assembly. Although the elections results were welcomed by the oil industry and the business elites, Lasso’s pro-business instincts seemingly will need to be balanced with the traditional anti-extractive preferences of Pachakutik. Expecting an economic recovery via investments in oil activities in the Amazon would then have to consider an expected increased participation of local communities in the decision- making process, via consultations and approval processes. In that sense, possible local communities’ opposition to these projects, in addition to the international community’s pressure to decarbonize its economy, may force Ecuador to reconsider its oil dependency.

ANNIVERSARY POLICY BRIEF | INSITUTE OF THE AMERICAS