Nationally Determined Contributions Across the Americas

INSTITUTE OF THE AMERICAS | NDCs in the Americas: A Comparative Hemispheric Analysis

mid-century through the electrification of the public transport system, energy efficiency measures, improved farming practices, and the establishment of a voluntary emissions reporting mechanism. In fact, Costa Rica’s NDCs are among the few at a global scale that are closely aligned to the 2-degree Celsius objective of the Paris Agreement according to Climate Action Tracker . In contrast to Costa Rica’s leadership, Brazil and Mexico—responsible for over 50% of the region’s overall emissions—are both lagging compared to the region’s collective efforts to tackle the global climate crisis. The actions of these two countries could also have potentially negative region-wide effects. In both cases, their updated NDCs are no more ambitious, and their respective governments are implementing policies and regulations that could in fact reverse mitigation efforts. In short, if they were not yet on track to meet climate pledges before, they are now on an upward emissions trend. It is also worth noting that, up until the current administration, Mexico had historically been at the forefront of the fight against climate change, domestically and internationally. Brazil is also perhaps the only case of one of the world’s large emitters to actually reduce the ambition of its NDCs regarding GHG emission targets xvi and to completely dispense with an adaptation component in their 2020 update. Mexico and Brazil are nations of the utmost importance in terms of their natural capital and biodiversity, as the first and fourth most megadiverse countries in the Hemisphere. Accordingly, protecting their respective biomes is essential for the region. It is likewise important to note that the United States remains, by and large, the world’s second largest GHG emitter. The US is still far from being on track to deliver on its original Paris Agreement commitments—let alone the updated and more ambitious targets. Additionally, the Biden Administration has still, at the time of writing, not secured legislative approval in the U.S. Congress to implement the required actions it laid out to fulfill its recently updated NDCs. It is worth highlighting, however, that the Biden Administration’s proposed $3.5 trillion budget and legislative package currently under negotiation in the U.S. Congress could mitigate up to 1 billion metric tons of carbon emissions, according to a recent analysis by the Rhodium Group. xvii The US is striving to correct course as it strives to make up for lost time in contributing to this crisis, and the efforts achieved to date on several fronts are noteworthy. In mid-September 2021, the US and the EU pledged to reduce 30% of methane (CH 4 ) emissions—a short-lived yet potent GHG with a global warming potential 25% higher than CO 2 —by 2030. This will have to come in hand with xviii

world, in particular the G7, and multilateral development banks (MDBs), will also need to step up their game should they wish to see the ambitious pledges set across Latin America and the Caribbean actually fulfilled. This issue will be covered in more detail later in the report. Figure 6: Americas Hemispheric NDC Scorecard

It is worth highlighting several countries in the region, such as Barbados, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Peru, that have demonstrated high ambition and action regarding their NDCs in most categories. This level of ambition could change particularly in Chile and Peru, given the uncertainty of their political outlook in the future. Colombia’s NDCs are among the most ambitious in the region, even though it represents about 5% of the LAC region’s total emissions. A 20% emissions reductions target by 2030 in its 2015 NDC was increased to a 51% emissions reduction target in its 2020 update. Costa Rica, a historical climate leader, did not disappoint. It is one of few countries in the LAC cohort that actually established—and ingrained in domestic policy through a National Decarbonization Plan—a detailed strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by

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