Western Hemisphere 2021 Energy Landscape and Outlook

AMLO’s victory

Mexico Energy Outlook and Scenarios By Francisco Xavier Salazar Diez de Sollano and Leonardo Beltran

2021 will be a crucial year for the energy sector in Mexico. Two key variables - economic performance and the results of midterm elections in June - will shape the future of the industry not only for 2021 but for the rest of the administration. One way to think about the outlook is to consider four different scenarios that depend on the evolution of these two variables:

Scenario I: Partial Reform

This scenario occurs if the economy does not do well but AMLO continues to hold a majority in the lower house similar to the one he currently has. Under these circumstances, reality, particularly in the economic field, and political restrictions would prevent him from doing constitutional changes, but he would still push legal amendments to support his decisions to strengthen PEMEX and CFE market position.

INSTITUTE OF THE AMERICAS

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